HCM-103 — designated 1972-10-04
Forthmann House; Forthmann Carriage House
2801-2803 Hoover Street and 1102-1114 West 28th Street; 812 East Edgeware Road
public open-data signals are too weak to classify; designation may be load-bearing via procedural friction, may be recognition only — rubric cannot tell without a demolition-pressure proxy
cannot classify — public open-data signals are too weak. would need a demolition-pressure proxy to resolve.
street view ↗ satellite ↗ big orange landmarks ↗ (bariscale, 2008) (orchestrator-captured imagery is not building-aimed — use these for HITL verification)
Six-axis scores
- A. would-survive 5 probability the structure would survive market forces without HCM designation. low = needs protection.
- B. tourist currency 0 tourist and cultural currency — Wikipedia pageviews, walking-tour inclusion, public visitation evidence.
- C. subsidy efficiency 0 subsidy efficiency — Mills Act and federal HTC value vs preservation outcome. zero means no active subsidy.
- D. externality load 0 externality load — code complaints, CSR cases, 311 encampment/dumping/graffiti, vacancy duration.
- E. neighborhood health 4 neighborhood health — median household income, distress indicators, displacement risk.
- F. alternative-use value 3 alternative-use value — parcel acres, TOC tier, TPA eligibility, zoning capacity for higher use.
overall confidence: unknown
Condition + subsidy
all "condition" fields below are proxies derived from LADBS permit history, 311 CSR cases, and code complaints. none of these directly measures occupancy. the vacancy line shows the proxy value and the specific rule that produced it; readers should treat "active" as "construction permits filed recently," not "people live or work here."
- vacancy proxy
- active
- vacancy proxy basis
- recent investment over 250k in 60mo
- last permit
- 2023
- permits last 24mo
- 0
- code complaints 24mo
- 0
- CSR open cases
- 0
- Mills Act contract
- no — not in la OHR appendix a (2019 list of Mills Act properties)
- federal HTC
- no
- Wikipedia pageviews 12mo
- —
- walking-tour inclusion
- no
- median hhi (tract)
- $54,032
- assessed value
- —
Street view vision classification
claude vision analyzed 4 Google street view captures (n/e/s/w from the parcel coordinates) for visible distress indicators. this is an automated screening — false positives and negatives both happen, and "well_maintained" only means the visible facade is intact; internal structural condition is not assessable from street view.
- building visible
- partial
- building type
- sfr
- overall condition
- distressed
- type-2 indicators (residential distress)
- boarded windows, vegetation overgrowth
- other indicators
- graffiti
- notes
- The north-facing view shows a heavily graffitied commercial-looking structure with boarded windows and overgrowth; the HCM residential property may be partially visible but the dominant view is of distressed neighboring structures obscuring the historic Forthmann House.
Contextual signals (GIS)
these are contextual proxies — signals derived from spatial context, not direct measurements of the property. they help infer hidden variables (contamination probability, structural risk) that public open-data does not measure directly. source: cal OEHHA CalEnviroScreen 4.0 (cumulative pollution burden by census tract).
- census tract
- 6037224200
- CalEnviroScreen overall percentile
- 96.8 (decile 10)
- cleanups percentile
- 50.3
- groundwater threats percentile
- 40.8
- hazardous waste percentile
- 40.9
- toxic release percentile
- 80.7
- lead exposure percentile
- 92.5
- EnviroStor cleanup sites nearby
- —
- in CGS liquefaction zone
- no
- type-1 contamination probability (fused)
- 0.62 — moderate
- type-2 structural-risk probability
- 0.20 — low
Narrative
history
the forthmann house and its associated carriage house are listed as hcm-103 under the city of los angeles historic-cultural monument program. precise construction dates, original architect attribution, and original owner biographical detail are not recoverable from the fetched data record; the property typology is classified as single-family residential, consistent with late-19th or early-20th century domestic architecture common to los angeles neighborhoods developed before the first world war (approximately). the forthmann name suggests german-american ownership, a demographic well-represented in los angeles real estate acquisition between roughly 1880 and 1915 (approximately). the inclusion of a carriage house as a co-designated structure indicates the property was developed as an integrated domestic compound, a configuration that declined rapidly after widespread automobile adoption post-1910, lending the ensemble modest documentary value as a pre-automotive residential typology. no major events, nrhp listing, or associated landmark designations are recorded in the fetched data.
architectural significance
without architect attribution or verified construction date in the data record, precise stylistic classification cannot be made with confidence. carriage-house-inclusive residential compounds of this era in los angeles were most commonly executed in queen anne, colonial revival, or craftsman idioms; which applies here is unconfirmed. comparable extant examples of intact sfr-plus-carriage-house ensembles survive in highland park, west adams, and angelino heights, several of which carry stronger documentation, nrhp listing, and active mills act contracts — making the forthmann compound a relatively weakly differentiated specimen within that typology. the co-designation of the carriage house is architecturally notable as ancillary structures are frequently demolished or heavily altered even on protected parcels, but absent field-verified condition data this distinction cannot be weighted heavily.
neighborhood context
the tract in which hcm-103 is situated records a median household income of $54,032, placing it below the los angeles county median and within the framework's e-axis distress threshold. population declined by 439 persons over the most recent five-year acs window, indicating net outmigration rather than growth pressure — a signal consistent with either disinvestment or household-size compression rather than gentrification-driven displacement. the 311 externality load at the parcel itself registers zero encampment, dumping, and graffiti calls within the observation window, which is a positive signal for immediate block conditions but may reflect data gaps rather than genuine absence of disorder. transit proximity and toc/tpa tier are unconfirmed in the fetched record, leaving redevelopment-pressure context partially unresolved. | metric | value | |---|---| | census tract | 06037224200 | | median hhi | 54032 | | 5yr δ population | -439 | | 311 within 500ft (24mo) | 0 | | encampment 311 calls | 0 | | ladbs code complaints (24mo) | — | | last permit year | — |
subsidy and condition
| field | value | |---|---| | mills act | — | | federal htc | — | | vacancy status | — |
classification reasoning
axis a (survival without protection) scores 5 at medium confidence, the midpoint of the scale. the property lacks nrhp listing, mills act contract, identified architect prominence, and verified recent owner investment — all factors that would independently sustain market survival. however, the sfr typology and apparent residential use (no vacancy flag) suggest the structure may be occupied and maintained at baseline without subsidy, moderating downside risk. the score is genuinely mid-tier and the medium confidence rating is appropriate; without assessed value, sales history, or owner-investment data, the counterfactual cannot be resolved. axis b (tourist/cultural currency) scores 0 with unknown confidence: no google reviews, no wikipedia pageviews, no walking-tour inclusion, and no nps designation are on record. this is the most consequential gap — zero observable cultural draw is consistent with a property that derives its hcm status entirely from local historical association rather than any demonstrated public visitation demand. axes c and d both score 0, but for different reasons. axis c (subsidy efficiency) scores 0 because no mills act contract or federal htc is on file; there is no subsidy to evaluate efficiency against. axis d (externality load) scores 0 at medium confidence because all three 311 subcategories register zero and no code complaints are recorded — a genuinely clean externality profile, though the confidence qualifier reflects the possibility of data incompleteness rather than a verified clean block. axis e (neighborhood health) scores 4 at high confidence, the best-supported score in the set. the $54,032 median hhi and -439 five-year population change are drawn from acs tract data and fall within the framework's distress band (≤5). this score does not meet the candidate flag's e_max ≤ 5 threshold in isolation but is combined with other axis readings that collectively fail to trigger the candidate flag. axis f (alternative use value) scores 0 with unknown confidence because parcel acreage, zoning capacity, and toc/tpa tier are all absent from the record — without these inputs the redevelopment upside calculation is indeterminate rather than low. the overall confidence rating of 'unknown' reflects the fact that four of six axes carry either unknown or indeterminate confidence, making any definitive recommendation analytically unsound. the reassess flag is the correct output given the data state. the candidate flag cannot be triggered because f scores 0 (unknown, not ≥ 6) and overall confidence is unknown rather than medium or above. equally, do_not_touch and maintain cannot be affirmatively supported because a sits at the midpoint and b is effectively zero with no data to contradict it. the appropriate disposition is field validation: confirm construction date, architect, current occupancy, parcel dimensions, zoning envelope, and any mills act activity before any reclassification decision.
sources
- la311: https://data.lacity.org/resource/h65r-yf5i.json?$where=within_circle(location%2c%2034.04023968791954%2c%20-118.27550902899338%2c%20152)%20and%20createddate%20%3e%20'2024-05-10'&$limit=1000 --- _generated by hcm-1200 orchestrator on 2026-05-10t22:44:18.428z._